What's Next?

Don't Get Tied To Someone

2012-01-29T06:49:00.006-07:00

Below is an excerpt of an email we sent to our business partners and team members last week. The email was in response to the news of a top leader in our business leaving to pursue another opportunity, and how we felt it would not impact our business. The below story is the important part of the email, and it's all about not getting emotionally tied to someone in your own business:
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A quick story.....

When I was a kid growing up in California, the world's best pitcher Tom Seaver played for the New York Mets, which was my grandmothers favorite team and so became mine. I watched Tom pitch on TV whenever I could, collected his baseball cards, and proudly wore my royal blue Mets cap with the big "NY" embroidered on the front. It was a little tough being in Dodgers and Angels territory, but I was a Tom Seaver and New York Mets fan! But you know what happened one day in 1977? Tom went to the Cincinnati Reds. I felt lost...I couldn't root for Tom and the Mets any more and I couldn't even spell Cincinnati!

It took a while to sort it out, but I realized what I really loved had not changed. Yes, a very important player I liked and followed moved on but my love for baseball had not changed. That's what really mattered -- playing ball myself and just being immersed in the fun game of baseball, surrounded by my friends all thinking the same thing. Mets, Dodgers, Angels, and even the Reds.....they were all good and we were part of all of it! And the best thing of all never changed after Tom moved on...helping my grandmother root for the Mets!

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Interestingly, and this wasn't in the email, is that in the company I used to work for EVERY SINGLE LEADER in a straight-up direct line above me, all the way to the CEO, left in the space of two years. My direct manager, his manager, etc., all the way to the top guy. While this was hard to sort out during that time and created all sorts of questions about loyalty, it really highlighted we are all responsible for our own careers and business growth. No matter who you think might have the best "way" and you try to follow them, know that they may be following someone too and will move on. When you see someone who preaches "staying with it", "don't quit", and "loyalty pays" LEAVE, you have to wonder what all the preaching was about. Actions really do speak louder than words. At the end of the day, if you are following the one person that really matters - YOURSELF - it doesn't matter when someone leaves your business.

Beware of false prophets, as their promise of profits may be false.

A drum can be beaten on a mountaintop, but just as easily beaten on another mountaintop, and another, and another...

PCTV!

2011-12-14T13:12:00.006-07:00

Structure and Spontaneity

2011-10-17T10:36:00.006-06:00

This morning, after taking the kids to school, I dropped my car off at the shop for some maintenance and caught a ride home from one of the employees. He asked if I was going to be late to work, and I said no, I work at home and just needed to take the dogs out for a walk, do a little work, and maybe go for a road bike ride later. He commented on working from home and said "oh, that's the dream". Is it? I think that what he was really getting at, and what most people really want, is a balance between structure and spontaneity. You see, for many people their lives are very, very structured. Days are a pre-determined time schedule of school start times, being to work on time, conference calls every hour, school pick up times, soccer practice time, catching a TV show at 8pm, etc. This is the "treadmill" my father talked about 30 years ago, and it's the same today. It seems we have to be somewhere or doing something at every point of time during the day. This kind of structured life leads little room for spontaneity which, I would suggest, is where the real fun and enjoyable things happen. Who has TIME to grab a camera to capture an amazing sunset? Who has time to go skiing the morning after a foot of new powder? Work and other responsibilities are important. Work is what pays the bills and other duties add value to our community and our children's lives. But is it right to be tied to a time schedule all day, every day? When we say we are exhausted at the end of every day, I think I know the reason why. I know I can actually be "busier" on vacation, but never exhausted.

Zig Ziglar had a great exercise I wanted to share and it goes like this: I've gone ahead and booked you on a flight to St. Croix that leaves 24 hours from now, and comes back in a week. The weather looks great for the next few days, with sunny days in the 90's. You can see the ocean from your beach cottage at Chenay Bay, and enjoy the shade of the tall palm trees. You can hear the breeze blowing through them every night, along with the sound of the ocean surf. The seafood is fresh, and you'll taste the freshest lobster every night. You'll be able to enjoy snorkeling, diving, fishing, and even horseback riding on the beach. Sounds wonderful, doesn't it? Remember though, the flight leaves in exactly 24 hours and you have to be ready to go. This means letting go of your time schedule and all the things other people want you to do, and not being in all the places you're expected to be. This means being less structured. This means being spontaneous. Can you get on that plane in 24 hours?

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If you have too much structure and not enough spontaneity (and fun!) in your life and WANT to change, contact me and I'll share some ideas on how to do this.

Storage

2010-12-03T09:55:00.001-07:00

For some reason, Christmas oriented storage products are super hard to find this time of year and especially right after Christmas! My friend Kevin has them at his online store though!

http://www.christmastreestoragebag.net/

Mila

2010-11-16T20:22:00.005-07:00

We are seriously checking out a chia-seed food/supplement called Mila. We've been taking fish-oil (Costco) supplements for years and have added hemp seed to our yogurt for a few months, but recently had Mila suggested to us by some friends. Great fiber source, Omega-3's, some protein, and good anti-oxidant source. Very interesting stuff and a possible business opportunity too since it is sold directly.

Stay tuned! (Email/Twitter me for any ???'s)

Corn & Cattle

2010-10-11T09:31:00.003-06:00

Weekly data - Corn futures and Live Cattle futures

Bloomberg posted an article today about how the recent jump in corn prices will affect beef prices in the months to come, as corn is a primary feed source for grain-fed cattle. It makes total sense, but in the last recent parabolic move in corn in 2008, underlying cattle prices did not move up (see chart above). In 2008 though, the move on corn was related to the ethanol craze, which seems to have died down a bit. Will this time be different? (Personally, I'm all for grass-fed beef!!)

(Thanks to @jsfalvo for linking article on Twitter today!)

SOLD!

2010-06-24T11:47:00.002-06:00

We created our own SOLD sign since the sign in our yard is ready to come down.

Forget the Febreeze, spray some more Fabrice!

2010-04-16T11:15:00.002-06:00

The GS news took the market down fairly hard today, and GS itself had a 30+ point range. Gold, copper, bank stocks, everything was sold a bit. That said, the daily chart is still in an uptrend but we've seen how fragile this hot air market really is. In the last few weeks the market has dropped very quickly on negative news, even though those dips have been bought.

Dollar Index Follow Up

2010-03-21T10:08:00.005-06:00

Chart created with Telechart, courtesy of http://www.worden.com/

The 6 month timing "forecast" for the dollar index called for a low around 10/17/09, based on the 6 month cycle from April of 2009. The actual low in the index came in on 11/25/09, which would then push a 6 month forecast high (not a top, just a relative high) in late May. Interestingly, the 90 day time period forecast would have been 2/23/10, and there was an actual spike swing high on 2/19. Chart wise, this current up-pattern looks like a bull flag. I bought some UUP back in October, kept through the November dip, and was recently stopped out to protect profits in this bull flag. I may re-enter now that it seems the bull flag is turning up this past week. The 20/50/200 ma's are nicely stacked for a positive environment, so there could be a new leg up or just a retest of the bull flag top.

Remember, it's very hard to forecast price and it's equally hard to forecast time. However the dollar index does seem to respond to 90 and 180 day swings. Where would price be 90 days from the February spike high? Who knows, but the concept here points to another relative high in May.

Break of Narrow Range

2009-12-16T19:43:00.003-07:00

Today had a super-tight opening range/swing (1 point) and a super-tight first hour (3 points). Waiting for the FOMC announcement usually does not create such narrow ranges, but it's been "quiet" the last few weeks anyway so it's not surprising. The chart above does show movement out of that 3 point range after the 2:15pm EST announcement. Analysis can highlight a break of the range at 1108, two tests of the midpoint (yellow line) and 1109 opening swing high, and an eventual swing down to the 1103/1104 area. This has been a high volume area in the past, as well as last nights Globex low, so support could be anticipated. A buy-scalp worked here going into the close, much like yesterday's closing swing up.

6 month Dollar

2009-10-31T11:02:00.004-06:00

Chart courtesy of Worden Brothers www.telechart.com

I've been thinking for some time there is some type of 6 month or 180 day cycle in the US Dollar Index. The attached chart shows some recent highs/lows based on a 180 day cycle. They are not perfect, nor show the highest highs or lowest lows, but they are related. Worth researching further, as well as shorter/longer term cycles that are in play at the same time. (There are always cycles within cycles, same as higher and lower time-frames).

Hmm....

2009-09-20T20:25:00.003-06:00

The title says it all. Here we are, market-wise at a major intersection of the roads the market has taken and will take. New moon, 240 degrees from the 3/6/09 low, the upcoming 9/23 equinox, the September seasonality, and an NR7 day on Friday. Gold is 6 days over the 1000 mark, which is a major change from the last two probes of this level (which didn't stick, which is why they were probes). Bigger picture, this 90 cycle is interesting, both 90 days and 90 months. The 90 month cycle is worth looking at and shows interesting similarity to where we are today, and if the picture is right it doesn't look good for the "new bull market" types.

I am still captivated and in awe of professionals like Linda Raschke, Jeff Cooper, and Don Miller every day. They have never sent me a single piece of marketing mail and I think that is a major 'tell'.

Gold/Dollar

2009-08-16T11:39:00.005-06:00

Charts courtesy of Worden Brothers

Gold is showing a big coil on the weekly chart along with the 3/10 oscillator. 975 and 925 look like the breakout levels. Given the chart of the US Dollar though, the guess for gold would be a break to the downside. The dollar is poised to continue a rally up after completing a three-swings-to-a-test (of the December low). The dollar turned its weekly chart up, came back in a bit, then closed strongly for the week. This is a change of character from the last time it turned its weekly up and then died at the end of July. The Euro is 60% of the dollar index and that will be the focus for the next few weeks.

Well, Golly Gee!

2009-06-04T22:04:00.003-06:00

Not many blog posts recently as Facebook and Twitter seem to be takiging over the personal-update-space. Look at Tony Blauer's FB page for example. He's been well known for his work for years (I knew about him before he knew about Crossfit, but what does that matter!), but his FB updates are VERY well followed. It's the media and delivery maybe (a "hook"), combined with the message. Hey, I do remember something about marketing!

For myself, I have decided to make the goal for 2009 to compare my learning progress with skiing to that of trading. This is something I've thought a lot about the last few months (along with climbing). I would like to SHOW how I learned to ski and climb at relatively high levels, and then overlay that progression to trading and prove to myself it is similar and can be achieved. This is a work in progress, and something I think about every day. I used to suck at skiing, falling down a lot with lots of yardsales, but somehow got past it? How? What were those days? That's the path to follow to get this trading stuff down. Plenty of people ski every day and plenty of people trade every day....happily.

Pluses and Minuses

2009-03-29T14:40:00.006-06:00

www.photontrader.com

Just wanted to show (and archive for myself) an example of a "-1+2" pattern. This is seen in several places in technical analysis as a short term pullback, but I found it in the Cooper/Reif course and Jeff Cooper often refers to it in day-trade setups. I haven't seen any distinct rules for the setup or what time frame it works best on, but I've used it on both a day and intraday basis. I use a 10 bar filter for it though, so for the -1+2, the stock has made a 10 bar low followed by 2 higher highs, with entry then on the 4th bar. The opposite, for the long side, would be a +1-2 pullback.

Where's Waldo?

2009-03-20T11:19:00.002-06:00

Chart created courtesy of Worden, www.telechart.com

Wow, I haven't updated the blog in a month! Lots of action in the market, big rally was expected time cycle wise and it played out.

I'm watching the dollar index closely now (heavily weighted by Euro) into late April. That'll be 6 months from the October highs, which I'm using as the "high before the high" for counting purposes. Six months out could be a low for the index if this analysis works out. Exactly 90 after the October high there was a big reaction in January, adding some weight to that being a valid date. We'll see what happens after the next 90 days.

Going Downtown

2009-02-20T14:42:00.004-07:00

You Look So Good
When you're coming down
Like A Rocket To The Moon
When you're coming down
I want your spirit
When you hit the ground

Well, It's six in the morning
And I'm feeling so good
Ain't got no clever words No More
So I won't be missunderstood

You Look So Good
When you're coming down

Sometime I got the blackest Spirit
Wants to hold you down
But the diamonds in your heart
Don't worry won't let you down

You Look So Good
When you're coming down
When you're coming down
When you're coming down
-- "Coming Down", Daniel Ash

Well the market has certainly come down, right back to the November lows. Back to 1997 lows for the Dow. But this week is 90 days from the November lows, which could be either a turning point (up) or an acceleration (down). For the sake of sanity and overally well being, I'd prefer the prior. It feels like any rally we have could be powerful, since the small intra-day "news pops" have been significant, so obviously buyers can BUY.

Things I've learned this week are:

I am getting much better at reading intraday structure in terms of opening price, prior highs/lows, and key pivot points, looking for 3 swings to a test, re-tests, etc.
Trading ES futures instead of SPY makes a LOT more sense and I feel more relaxed with it. I'm still scared to death of the new platform though in case I buy or sell 100 contracts!
Currency trades can be big winners, but I still take small profits. Something to work on.

Sold!

2009-02-10T20:29:00.005-07:00

I know brother they tell you one thing
And I know sister they sell you another
Distract you with baubles and glitter
Their taunts and subliminal whispers
Keep you hungry and apart
Consuming your heart

There's a mirror in the next room
Bending all that you see
There's a mirror in the next room
With your identity
If only you can try it
You know you've got to buy it
To have everything
If only you can buy it
You know you've got to try it
To have everything
That's how they sell you

I know mother they give you with one hand
And I know father they take it with two
Enslaving your deepest desires
With shining things you can't acquire
Leave you needy and un-whole
Consuming your soul
There's a mirror in the next room
Bending all that you see
There's a mirror in the next room
With your identity
If only you can try it
You know you've got to buy it
To have everything
If only you can buy it
You know you've got to try it
To have everything
That's how they sell you
Supreme Beings of Leisure, "Mirror"

Not much new in the way of blog posts recently. There was a full moon and eclipse this week,plus a short term cycle hit last week, but the big "wait" was in Washington this week, specifically today and tomorrow. And now that we've been told, have we been sold? Or, like the title of this blog, What's Next? Erdman still has it right.

All I can think of is taking the kids to the beach this year, and showing them waves, tide pools, and the such. Why are these so important to traders like Jeff Cooper and Jeff Watson? There is nothing new under the Sun.

60/360

2009-01-21T12:39:00.003-07:00

Having the SPX under the "key reversal day" on Jan 15th sure doesn't look good, but the market is at a place for a potential turn up. We are 1 year (360 degrees) from the January 2008 lows and 60 days from the November 2008 lows, both key short term cycles. The SPX also completed a successful backtest of a trendline drawn down from the Dec 8th high. If it's going to go up, it'd better be now.

12th!

2009-01-20T17:36:00.004-07:00

Photo courtesy of Kathie Villard, Villard Images

Congrats to Leanne for placing 12th in her age group at the Painter's Half Marathon on Saturday in St. George. The weather was 100% better than the cold rainy marathon back in October, and we had sunny skies and cool temps. Leanne has found races to do every month of the year in St. George, making that yet another compelling reason to live there.

The Dog That Licked Christmas

2008-12-28T17:15:00.005-07:00

Photo courtesy of Kathie Villard / Villard Images

Christmas 2008 has come and gone! Good times were had by all and the snow that fell on Christmas day kept us all inside playing with our new toys. The food was excellent this year as we stocked up before the big storm. Griffin took a special liking (licking?) to the table after we made Christmas cookies on Wednesday and used his extra long tounge to get all the crumbs.

Christmas dinner was about 50% Paleo, with an incredible pea-mint soup, roasted turkey with pomegranate-grapefruit dressing, mashed potatoes, and baked Alaska for desert.

Jump Like You Mean It

2008-12-14T19:42:00.005-07:00

So, what do the girls do when it's dark, 17 degrees outside, and the streets are snowy? They go for a quick garage session before dinner! No, the garage is not heated but some weighted box jumps provide some warming. Leanne does the power clean-box jump from Dumbbell Moves I here and Nathalie does some work on the rings.

360 Degrees Up

2008-12-07T12:24:00.003-07:00

Click to enlarge

Friday seemed to play out as a good example of a Cooper "volatility pendulum", where the index was forming a nice triangle formation, went down through the bottom converging trendline. It then reversed mid day and closed above the upper trendline and at the high of the day. The expectation is for continued up move this next week. The point where the daily chart turned up on 11/20 at 820 was hit twice this week, indicating the strength and "respect" for this level. The weekly chart turned up at 882 on 11/26, and as would be expected, we saw a turn down this week. The SPX found a low immediately Monday but did retest on Friday. The turn back up on Friday seemed quite bullish (above the 20dma this time) and we are still long in our swing trading (IRA) accounts.

Back up through the 853 level on Friday clinched the deal, as 853 is 360-degrees up from the low of 741. Next target is back above 882 and possibly 935 (50 day average). This level also equates to an equal up-down-up swing based on the 3-day chart. 974 is 360 degrees up from 853. Note that both the 20 and 50 are still declining.

Next full moon is December 12th, which is 270 days (3x90) from the key March low on 3/17. Could it be the high for the month? If December stays as an inside month (with no trade above 1007.51), then the expectation would be for a higher January. Down-inside months are resolved to the upside 77% of the time, according to Dave Reif's statistics.

Mail Undeliverable, Return to Sender

2008-12-05T17:58:00.003-07:00

"Sign us up, or else".

Did Congress, where the big 3 automakers have spent some time whining about their woes, actually send Bush a letter saying HE has to provide money to them? What was a commercial for the automakers hybrid cars has turned into a sideshow. Is it of any amazement, or just regularly scheduled programming on this channel, to have the announcement that GM and Chrysler have retained bankruptcy advisors and GM was cutting back three production plants TODAY? Bush is not God, but he may not be able to help anyway. It's hard to believe in any of this.

Dear God,

T Minus 25 and Counting...

2008-11-30T18:41:00.004-07:00

Chart provided courtesy of Worden Brothers www.telechart.com

The Telechart indicator "T2108" was first brought to my attention as something useful by Smita Sadana, a trader and writer from Austin, even though I've been using Telechart for years. The statistic measures the percentage of stocks trading above their 40 day moving average. It became a very interesting number recently when it was around 2 -- it can't go below 0 and this was pretty darn close! In fact, it has never been that low base on Telechart data from 1995. Now this is one pitfalls of any market measure and looking at extremes, as they are based on time-frames. Who knows what T2108 would have shown in 1929 or 1987 or any other year. But what's more interesting is not how low it went recently, but how fast it got back up to a more range-normal reading. Too much too fast?

The McClellan Oscillator is now also at it's second highest reading in recent months, indicating an "overbought" market.

Up or Sideways?

2008-11-25T20:10:00.006-07:00

"Come on Big Daddy, give us the word...
Bring me my pendulum kiddies, I feel like swinging."
Vincent Price, Beach Party

"We're professional entertainers. You give us money, we entertain you."

"We are the light at the end of your sorry little tunnel."

"It's all a matter of technique. We have it, and you don't, so if you shut the f*** up, we'll play some songs and everyone'll be happy."

"You are very very bad people and you must be punished."

Sisters of Mercy (or is it the Fed and the Treasury???)

Any similarity of Vincent Price starring in "The Pit and the Pendulum" before "Beach Party", much like Bernanke and Paulson hitting their peak before what came next? Who knows, but if the up swings play out, watch out below. They may be the light for lots of little moths. $800 billion more today; I don't think my account can quite cover that one.

Turnaround?

2008-11-18T17:42:00.007-07:00

Click to expand

Today was a rather "complex day" with a lot going on. What I saw today was:

3 swings to test the prior day break down point. Once completed, we had a ....

Mid-day A-B-1/2 A pull back. Not a true A-B-C at all, but often I've seen a move of x, a pause, and then 50% of x more. Today's move of 26 + 13 was exact and stopped at a trendline going back to 11/11.

A big U-turn pivot (i.e. pocket) that blasted up.

Lots to look at here. SDS was a great play for most of the day but it moves fast. Watching the low ADX/triangle breakout on the Russell and then failure (LBR "ouch trade") was key to thinking the SPX would fall.

3rd Strike?

2008-11-05T13:12:00.005-07:00

Chart courtesy of Worden Brothers www.telechart.com

Is the Russell 2000 headed for a 3rd lower low? There is a compelling chart case for it to head back to the lower trendline and make a 3rd, lower low. The R2K is the only major index that had a 2nd lower low, and with the market often playing out in three's, it's what I'd be looking for. There is also a link to the square of nine chart, where Russell lows around 440 line up with the November 12-17 time period, where many cycles are pointing to. This would create an equal but not lower low with the last one.

Evil Trine

2008-10-27T20:39:00.006-06:00

Well, the evil trine of holidays is upon us once again. Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas. Soon after the 4th of July we see the Halloween decorations start appearing in the stores, then the Thanksgiving decorations appear even before Halloween. And yes, Costco is already on the Christmas bandwagon. Even with the poor economy, they have to give it a try.

This 1-2-3 of holidays is evil in the food sense -- so watch out! The highly addictive Snickers (minis) had found their way into our house, but there can be many more. Last year I gave up all beer/alcohol during the holidays as a carb-control effort and it seemed to help. Breads and cakes seem inevitable, so counter somewhere. This weekend we have the DST setback, and darkness promotes more eating (of happy foods) so watch out!

Chicken Nuggets...Paleo, not Prefab

2008-10-11T17:46:00.005-06:00

Which would you rather have?

We tried the first at-home chicken nugget recipe with great success (found it here). Coat small chicken pieces with almond meal and egg batter and cook in canola oil. A bit of spice was added to the batter, but not too much for the little ones. These were light but not too heavy at all. These would be great as appetizers for a party (make sure no one has nut allergies!) but we ate them for dinner on the way to St. George.

7th of the 7th

2008-10-07T18:38:00.005-06:00

Today was the 7th day of the 7th month (from March, the first month of the 'year' according to Gann). Apparently 7 really is defined as the number of panic. I was expecting something more on the upside in the market after yesterday's nice bounce up, but that certainly wasn't the outcome. The S&P hasn't come close to the 200 month moving average since 1982. Today we are within about 10 points of it. Wow.

I wore black yesterday. Was I supposed to wear it today, too?

Congrats!

2008-10-07T16:16:00.003-06:00

Congrats to Leanne for racing the St. George Marathon on Saturday in 3:32. It was a cold, windy, and very wet start, middle, and finish but she did great and qualified for the Boston Marathon in April. Maybe there is a 50k or 50 miler out there someday too.

Philly Cheese Steak Peppers

2008-09-29T14:24:00.004-06:00

Yes, the market tanked today in all sorts of ways but as a diversion there is always food!

We love big Philly Cheese Steak sandwiches, but the hefty white-bread roll they come on is neither Paleo nor Zone. We had some extra large green peppers from the farmers market and thought why not try to replicate the famous sandwich without the bread? Easy! Rib-eye steak slices, provolone cheese, grilled onions, spices, all stuffed into a pre-baked green pepper. Tasted the same but without the monster carb-load (and crash) of the bread roll.

Our next effort will be to replicate "chicken nuggets" at home but in a healthier version than the ones from the fast food places. Toddlers need something better!

Weekend At Hank's III

2008-09-21T18:37:00.004-06:00

There were only two "Weekends at Bernie's", but our "Weekend at Hank's" has gone from a sequel to a series. This weekend we got the bill of the prior two weekend's though, to the tune of $700 LARGE (that's in super-sized billions). Add some interest and maybe a second round of checks-in-the-mail, and we're close enough to the Big T. Interesting that the folks who "created" this and "solved" it will all be retired or elsewhere in less than 6 months.

RANT: Of course, Congress has to vote on this and it will probably pass. And it will raise the already high deficit. And probably be blamed on the Prez by a certain Senator running for his job, even though he'll probably vote for it.

Don't Short The Queen

2008-09-18T18:00:00.008-06:00

Moving uptown
But I know it's the place I should be
The streets are all quiet And no one saying nothing at all
Then the sun came out of he clouds
And charged up the satellites
We all got our energy back and started talking again
It's the blessed routine for The Good, The Bad And The Queen
Just moving out of dreams with no physical wounds at all
Don't kick the crack heads of the green
They are a political party
And the kids are never going to be tired
Cos everything has ever so slightly come
Everything is so slightly come
Everything is so slightly come
Ooh, Ooh
"The Good, The Bad & The Queen"

Today the UK put into effect some bans on short selling, and tonight CNBC is reporting that the SEC may be close to doing the same. This news earlier today helped spur a monster rally in the S&P and other indices. The S&P 500 did hit 1136 today, which was 3x360 degrees down from the October hight and 3x360 up from the 2002 low. It was almost 60 months (56 really) ago that we were last at this level. This coincides with the 50% mark of the 2002/2007 range, as well as 1/2 of the move down from the May high (i.e. 1/2 of the first move down).

So if it's good for the Queen, is it good for the Colonies? What are the real crack heads/hedgies of the green going to say?

A Case Of The Mondays

2008-09-15T10:25:00.003-06:00

Ok, not to belabor the whole full moon thing, but how is it the Lehman/Merrill/AIG/etc. news hits ON another full moon? It's also exactly 6 months (180 days/degrees) since the March low with the Bear Stearns news. Interesting to say the least.

I just returned from the Forex Expo in Vegas and met some great folks and learned quite a bit more about Forex trading. Like I had thought, a lot of the money management rules carry over from equity trading, and even more so due to the speed and leverage of the Forex market. Open a demo account and just watch the speed at which a currency pair can be up or down 10 or 20 pips.

Note: title is famous line from Office Space about Mondays. There's not much flair to go with today though.

Today's Workout

2008-09-03T18:29:00.007-06:00

Swing...

and sprint...

Leanne's workout today was 12 swings of the 72 pound big 'bell and then a sprint to little orange cone about 50 yards out. Gotta do something to break up the longer runs while getting ready for the St. George Marathon in October that she and Alison are doing.

This is a Litvi-style workout we learned about through Gym Jones and Dan John.

Eat Your Olives

2008-08-29T14:13:00.006-06:00

Olives are tremendously wonderful little fruit and a great way to get the important fat into our Zone/Paleo/Evo type of eating. 3-5 olives is 1 Zone block, and it's easy to eat a lot of these to get double or triple fat blocks. One thing to watch out for though is the sodium content in canned olives - either search out low sodium versions, or try to drain then rinse the olives before eating them. They are also great for kids, as seen above!

Is Fall Really Coming?

2008-08-27T18:56:00.006-06:00

It can't be close to fall yet, but I think the evidence is compelling. School started, we are having 40 degree nights again, fall clothing catalogs are arriving in the mail, ski resorts are announcing ticket prices for the season, and ski sales are starting. We are still in Northern Utah but aren't supposed to be here! The slow housing market has delayed relocation to Southern Utah (where it's still over 100 during the day) and generally monkey-wrenched things.

The biggest tell of them all that fall is here? College football! Go CSU and CU!

A Finger Trade?

2008-08-16T18:51:00.008-06:00

Did the Russell 2000 give us the finger on Friday? Linda Raschke talks about a "finger trade" here (around minute 59 of the 65 minute video), which is essentially a short term spike-and-reversal pattern. It seemed to stand out on Friday in comparison to the SPX and Dow. If this follows through, it wouldn't be surprising. The Russell has been the leading index after both the March and July lows and is 360 degress up on a Square of 9 chart. It would make sense if it was the first index to turn down, if we do so.

On a side note, my last post was during a full moon, and this one is also during a full moon PLUS an eclipse! Maybe moons and blogs go together!

(Click image to expand)

Does The Moon Shine On You?

2008-07-17T19:15:00.005-06:00

Hey, remember the last full moon post? Here we are again, and what's up this time? We've hit new yearly lows for most stock indexes, and are in an early rally phase attempt. Friday could be anything, but it's a full moon with side of eclipse coming up soon.

As they say, "buckle up".

As I say, "what's next"?

Shut Up and Drive

2008-07-15T19:42:00.005-06:00

No, it's not Paula Creamer getting ready for the next LPGA tournament. Leanne is here hitting some practice balls in the backyard, loosening up for a track workout tonight with Alison. A sand wedge and a wiffle ball should only go so far, but Leanne is shooting for the next county over...

Athletes are always "working out", whether it's a real, planned workout that prepares them for their event, or something that is "active recovery". Athletes are competitive and always up for a challenge, even at rest. The real trick is to manage needed rest periods and not get injured on an off day, as has happened to far too many athletes.

New Closing Low

2008-07-09T17:29:00.002-06:00

...but not a new low. Confusing, isn't it? Today the S&P reversed yesterday's reversal, and made a new closing low for the year, but did not make a new low. What? It may not much matter, as the volatility has made for huge intra-day point swings that make it hard to work long or short positions. Some days call for both, but that really gets into the whole "turning on half a dime" mindset that is really, really, difficult. Fast, crazy antics, that's for sure.

Chart courtesy of TeleChart http://www.worden.com/

Office Space Sequel?

2008-07-06T10:10:00.003-06:00

I don't have any plan to start writing movie reviews and would probably have a better chance (and more fun) with restaurant reviews, but I had to throw this out there:

The new movie Wanted seems like a action packed sequel to Office Space. There are elements of that movie, the Matrix, and Highlander all mixed in. Not a bad movie, but the red stapler really ties it back to Office Space.

Full Moon Hangover

2008-05-23T15:17:00.006-06:00

The two-month rally party capped off this week with a start-of-summer full moon, but the subsequent hangover saw the S&P take out last week's lows and turn down the weekly chart. Oil prices also spiked up to a high, but the Oil and Gas index ended up leaving a Cooper "Iquana" weekly pattern (or close to it - the weekly open and close should be in the lower 25% of range). Continuation of this next week will help DUG, who "owes" me a bit of dough from the last go-around.

Not many blog posts recently due to travel, house cleaning, packing, and lots of market watching. Not even much time to work out, but there are plenty of days for that. On the cleaning note, getting rid of 20 year old sandals and t-shirts from high school is a good thing but almost embarrasing to think they were kept that long.

Chips and a Coke

2008-04-30T09:33:00.004-06:00

A steady diet of chips and Coke is certainly not healthy, but the after effects of the rally started by Intel and Coca Cola earnings on 4/16 has been very healthy! Two days later, the Google earnings helped the market move higher and ultimately test 1400. I saw 1402 as the first point of resistance, which we saw. 1420/1440 is still a potential, but then after that?

Electric Shock Treatment

2008-04-11T14:09:00.005-06:00

The U.S. market took a good sized dip today after General Electric's shock to the system, and felt a bit like wearing an electric ab belt. Very few areas were strong, and several key stocks that had been leaders nose-dived (AAPL, RIMM). I did see some strength (or relative strength) in the energy area, China stocks, solar names, and steel. Positively, the S&P is right at the 20/50dma necktie (crossover) area and looks like support. Monday should tell us if we want to wear the tie or not though.

1400 or Beyond?

2008-04-06T20:28:00.003-06:00

Not many blog posts in the last week due to travel, house shopping for mom, and family events. Still paid attention to the market just a bit though, thanks to Bloomberg radio on XM! It's a wonderful thing in the Utah desert.

Many stocks look extended from the recent run-up, but could have a ways to go. The S&P could test 1400 soon, which has a lot of history in 2007 as the start of year (March) pivot and support in the 3rd quarter. This level is also 360 degrees up from the 1256 low in March. The monthly chart has been turned up with the big move on 4/1, so the next few days should be interesting after holding that move the last few days.

409!

2008-03-30T08:47:00.007-06:00

Well I saved my pennies and I saved my dimes
(giddy up giddy up 409)
For I knew there would be a time
(giddy up giddy up 409)
When I would buy a brand new 409
(409, 409)
Giddy up giddy up giddy up 409
--Beach Boys, "409"

Well, everyone is now able to get their own "409", but may need more than pennies and dimes to pay. The name of the hot muscle car engine and popular Beach Boys song reference is now much closer to the powerful cleaner. Today it's the price of diesel at a local gas station near my house, right off one of the most heavily travelled highways for truckers in the U.S. With the continuing increase in the price of diesel, I fear the truckers are going to be feeling more cleaning of their wallets than power in the engine.

This podcast with Paul Van Eeden has one of the best and simplistic explanations of the price divergences we've seen between gasoline and diesel. The main issue seems to be lack of refining infrastructure to process enough diesel for the transportation industry. This point has been made by Jim Rogers before about many commodities, specifically lead mines, and now we are seeing the effects of it play out. It takes a very long lead time to bring increased capacity to the refining infrastructure, so we may be feeling this diesel squeeze for some time. It's interesting to recall the push for diesel cars as being more fuel efficient last year as a way to manage increasing fuel costs. Did the spike in diesel prices wash out some of that argument?

Up or Down?

2008-03-26T18:39:00.003-06:00

The suspense is terrible. I hope it will last.
--Willy Wonka (from Oscar Wilde)

The market took its first dip in a while today. I am taking it as a positive pullback in the expected run-up into April (~S&P 1440-1450), although these triple digit drops have been chilling. With what we've seen in the last few months, and doubting that it's over, any downturn can really shake the tree of confidence. Or maybe it's more like a wilting lily than a tree.

We have to remember or revisit a few things: the January lows have been been tested and have held, the weekly chart turned up last week, consumer-sensitive stocks are picking up (i.e. discount retail). Certain stocks showed great relative strength today and it was not a deep sell off.

Back to the Track

2008-03-22T18:25:00.005-06:00

We had a short track workout today and it made me remember the value of them. The track is a great setting for a group workout, and the workouts seem to remove a lot of the pressure and "die for points" competitiveness a closed gym setting brings. It's a place that guarantees hard work and a fun time. I'm not a track athlete and know little about that world, but from my small amount of exposure to the running and throwing sports, I've gained a ton of respect for what can become lifetime sports. Seeing an age category for 80+ for the 100m run in the Utah Summer Games is proof of that.

Workout was short and simple. Leanne was calibrating and testing out her new IPod-Nike+ sensor and shoe system, and ran three 400m sprints. I did two 400m runs, and one 400m run/throw with the 20 pound D-Ball. The big surprise was Nat, with two full laps around the track for 800m!

Happy New Year!

2008-03-20T06:47:00.007-06:00

Today is the Spring Equinox, a time for spring flowers, warmer weather, and change! W.D. Gann used this date to set the beginning of every year in his analysis of markets and securities. March has shown to be an interesting turning point many times, with trends beginning and trends ending. Last year on the equinox we saw the start of the run up into the June/July highs on the SPX, and it was interesting to watch the behavior of the index as well as certain equities as they repeatedly bounced off this measure of "year to date", and when breaking through it were magnetized back to it as resistance.

This year we are seeing a break in the trend for most major commodities and indices - U.S. Dollar, gold, silver, corn, soybeans, nat gas, and oil, all in the last few days. We are also seeing a possible trend beginning for the SPX, after a re-re-test (and undercut) of the January low. Tomorrow is a full moon, adding another event to the line-up.

Mail Enhancement...But Is It Natural?

2008-03-15T11:52:00.006-06:00

I'm all for a little mail stimulation, since getting checks-in-the-mail is the lifeblood of the self-employed, early retired, students, and perpetual travelers. The government stimulus checks being mailed to all U.S. tax-filers for 2007 is something I'm just not sure about though.

Is it right to spend more taxpayer money (me) to send out fiscal stimulus checks to tax-filers (me) in hopes that they (me) use the funds to spur further consumer spending? And if they (hopefully not me) use credit, even more than better? Am I going to pay for this, with interest I'm sure, when the next administration raises taxes by letting the current tax plan expire? Like I said, I welcome all checks-in-the-mail, but should we raise a skeptical eye and turn this one down ?

If we spend it, some ideas to knock around are:

Send it back. That's morally very high-ground, but cash is cash!
Buy a gold coin. Depending on your check, you may have to pony up to buy a whole coin. Appreciation in gold may help pay your future tax bills in years to come.
Put it in your Roth IRA. Stimulus checks should well be under the Roth limits. At least this account is "tax free" for now.
Pay down any and all consumer debt - credit card, autos, house. This pays for what you already bought, at a high interest rate.

Worse Than A Band-Aid

2008-03-15T09:14:00.006-06:00

Man girdles - these are just wrong. For someone to say "I'm now at that weird age where I'm starting to have a little bit of a spare tire" gives in to the fatalistic assumption that it's normal to develop a spare tire or "muffin top" at a commonly accepted age of.....39. Wow, I must have missed that one somewhere.

I don't think it's so bad needing or wearing "support undergarments" for whatever reason, but it seems to be part of the bigger problem (pun intended) to accept that everything is and should be big, from super-sized fast food, wider airplane seats, and plus sizes for toddlers. We know what this "bigness" problem is, and who it affects, but just accepting it and normalizing it is the wrong direction for any hope of turning it around.

If you're going to eat muffins, eat a few less and not to spill over.

Black Gold

2008-03-12T20:03:00.006-06:00

Today was somewhat of a "pause" day in some of the markets, and we were fairly distracted by being adopted by a new puppy. Oil stretched well above the "oil is pulling back from less consumption levels" from a few weeks ago, the dollar continued to sink, and the equity market rested after what looked like a Lowry "90% Up Day". We only saw a few headlines today, but the one about the dollar "adjusting" and the one about "increasing" bank scrutiny were interesting. I'm not sure why either of those really counted as news, as the dollar has been in a very long trend now and bank scrutiny has always been at par, but when the Fed makes the rules.....

This is short today as we have to get back to chasing a small, fast moving dog throughout the house.

Afternoon Workouts

2008-03-10T10:24:00.005-06:00

Now that daylight savings time has kicked in, we can look forward to an increasing number of afternoon workouts in the sun. It's warming up too, so any bits of ice and snow on the streets and driveways should start disappearing. Time for more 400 and 800 meter runs, Tabata sprints, and D-Ball throw/sprints (one of our favorites).

Until then, we have been making use of the local rec center gym. Our garage is still just too cold to get in to. Today's workout was nice - 1/2 mile run to loosen up, rack jerks with light weight, front squats, single arm dumb-bell press, back extensions, and some leg extensions. Those are to work on any possible middle quad weakness.

Double Down

2008-03-08T14:59:00.003-07:00

We've had two "down-inside" months before March, which is something of a rarity. November was down, and December was inside. January was down, and February was inside. This last time I could find this occurred was in 1992. Statistics from David Reif, CMT, show that for a single down-inside month, 77% are resolved to the upside. Given how March has started out, we haven't seen that. Either we're "doubling up" our chances for a bigger upside resolution, or something else is going on. Additional reading here.

Silver, Take a Breath!

2008-03-05T13:04:00.007-07:00

Silver has had a tremendous run up from the August lows. In keeping with the various inflationary, declining dollar, gold/silver ratio themes out there, silver could have several more legs to its bull market if it's only in the first one. Is spot silver hitting $40 out of the question? If gold pushes past $1000, will silver outperform even more? Year-to-date, silver's performance has been nearly double that of gold, supporting the "undervalued" notion in some circles.

Long term notions aside, silver could be at a short term top, or more likely, a pause. As measured from the 113.86 low, the SLV ETF is up nearly 4 full cycles of 45 degrees in Gann square-of-nine terms. This top equates to the $215 level.

Avoiding the Flu

2008-03-03T16:35:00.003-07:00

Having flu is something I try to avoid as much as possible, especially with having two young children at home. The State of Utah just announced that "activity is rapidly increasing statewide", although the CDC already reports it's widespread in all states except Florida. Getting it in the first place may be hit or miss if you have to venture into public places (i.e. airports) and flu shots may help avoid it or reduce the symptoms. One thing I've found for myself is having an overall healthy diet and strong immune system is key to a quick recovery.

Other than treating it with Tamiflu, two treatments I discovered the last time I had a good bout of flu are cold-water dousing and coconut oil. Cold-water dousing is just that - you subject yourself to a big bucket of cold water dumped right over your head, once or twice a day. The "shock" from the cold water tricks the body into an immediate warming response. The increase in overall internal temperature helps kill off the flu virus, which is susceptible to high heat. This is akin to creating a natural fever. I use a nice 15 quart bucket from Home Deport when I feel the need for a quick warm up. Note that is this is quick dousing, not a cold shower. (Hot/cold contrast treatments are a whole other topic).

Coconut oil, among it's many attributes, has a natural anti-viral slant to it. There's not much research on this, but apparently a partial amount of the lauric acid content in it converts to monolaurin, which can disrupt the flu virus. At the time I had flu, I added it to my diet along with the cold-water. It seemed like I bounced back from the flu much faster than in years before, but this was also alongside a far healthier diet. These days we have some coconut oil several times a week - the Nutiva brand tastes great, so what the heck!

Coach Rut also posted some great info on coconut oil on his site and in his current newsletter.

Current Portfolios

2008-02-28T15:38:00.004-07:00

The Peter Brimelow article posted on CBS Marketwatch today was an interesting survey about the Aden Forecast letter, one of many long running investment publications out there. It was an interesting highlight that their model portfolio is much the same as our own right now:

20% cash: euro; Swiss franc; yen;
Singapore, Australian, Canadian and New Zealand dollars or currency funds.
40% gold and silver physical and
exchange-traded funds and gold and silver shares;
40% energy and natural resource
stocks

We've been positioned very similarly for the last few months (I wish the last year!). This is a very "inflation ready / declining US interet rates" portfolio. In addition to these weightings though, we are ready for swing opportunities in the US equity market which can be dramatic.

Recently we've "bought into" the theme of junior gold stocks being the next boom area if physical gold continues on up past $1000 over the next year. The Toronto based Venture index is the common proxy for this segment, and UNWPX has good correlation to this index (~66%). Chart here.

Newsletter-wise, we currently take the Gloom Boom and Doom report from Marc Faber, which has an interesting global viewpoint of everything. The Jeff Cooper report is always on the list to subscribe to, but it's pricey and more geared towards short term trading which we don't partake in currently. Minyanville continues to post 1 or 2 per month as samples.

First Post

2008-02-27T14:56:00.004-07:00

With this being my first post on this blog, I thought I'd kick things off with a nice discussion about mayonnaise!

In our continued efforts to rid our kitchen of high fructose corn syrup (HFCS), we discovered even our mayonnaise had it. Since we've been trying to cook with more olive, avocado, and canola oil we replaced our Best Foods Light Mayo with Spectrum Naturals Light Canola Mayo. Along with removing another source of HFCS, we traded up to these benefits as well:

Total fat went down from 4.5g to 3.5g
Polyunsaturated fat (PUFA) decreased from 2.5g to 1g (good direction!)
Monounsaturated fat (MUFA) increased from 1g to 2.5g (good direction!)
Sodium content decreased from 115mg to 65mg. This is keeping with our other theme of decreasing sodium in our foods.

Making small changes like this is on the right road to eating better, feeling better and, if you are athletic, performing better. Incremental changes are much easier to incorporate than any "all or none" change to your nutrition plan.