The 6 month timing "forecast" for the dollar index called for a low around 10/17/09, based on the 6 month cycle from April of 2009. The actual low in the index came in on 11/25/09, which would then push a 6 month forecast high (not a top, just a relative high) in late May. Interestingly, the 90 day time period forecast would have been 2/23/10, and there was an actual spike swing high on 2/19. Chart wise, this current up-pattern looks like a bull flag. I bought some UUP back in October, kept through the November dip, and was recently stopped out to protect profits in this bull flag. I may re-enter now that it seems the bull flag is turning up this past week. The 20/50/200 ma's are nicely stacked for a positive environment, so there could be a new leg up or just a retest of the bull flag top.
Remember, it's very hard to forecast price and it's equally hard to forecast time. However the dollar index does seem to respond to 90 and 180 day swings. Where would price be 90 days from the February spike high? Who knows, but the concept here points to another relative high in May.
1 comments:
The index got as high as 82.50 in April and my guess now is that's all it's going to do, based on these time cycles. Time for the next 6 months.
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